There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is really happening. And this leads people who run Major League Baseball teams to misjudge their players and mismanage their teams.     – Peter Brand, in the movie “Moneyball” …if we make an effort to reconstruct the CPI of Okun’s era—which would have had inflation peak last year around 18%, we are able to explain 70% of the gap in consumer sentiment we saw last

PLEASE NOTE WE WILL BE OFF NEXT WEEK FOR THE SPRING BREAK HOLIDAY; WE WILL RETURN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  Thanks!

Common sense holds that investors should get paid more for taking more risk. This tends to be true in the bond market: The further you extend the maturity of bonds you hold, the more uncertainty you are underwriting and the more you should get compensated… Currently, the U.S. bond market doesn’t follow this logic. The yield curve is inverted, with cash yielding more than longer-dated bonds. The odds are that this trend will not continue.    

Change of a long term or secular nature is usually gradual enough that it is obscured by the noise caused by short-term volatility. By the time secular trends are even acknowledged by the majority, they are generally obvious and mature.  In the early stages of a new secular paradigm, most are conditioned to hear only the short-term noise they have been conditioned to respond to by the prior existing secular condition.  Moreover, in a shift