All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Gold miners are the new commodity stocks; commodity stocks are the new bonds (FFTT, 9/17/24)

If you study Occidental, what you’ll find is they don’t really have exploration going on … Oxy [Occidental] basically has no speculative drilling going on. So, in effect, it looks like a CD. They’re clipping coupons.  What Oxy is doing is they have a huge gusher of cash flows coming out and that huge gusher of cash flows is only going into buybacks and dividends. It’s all being pumped out to shareholders – and Warren

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A US recession remains highly unlikely (FFTT, 9/10/24)

Last August, the four very destabilizing things we highlighted above kicked off a 1-month period of elevated volatility where only the USD rose; 2.5 months later, the only asset classes up v. 8/2/23 levels were the USD, gold, and oil; critically, new versions of the four highly destabilizing things above have just happened: Oil prices rose sharply in June into the “danger zone” (>$80); USDJPY fell sharply in 2q24 & 10y JGB yields broke out

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