All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Large passive flows and recycled US deficits to begin flowing into BTC (via MSTR entry into QQQ) (FFTT, 12/17/24)

Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy to join the Nasdaq 100 and heavily traded ‘QQQ’ ETF     – CNBC, 12/13/24 The large increase in passive investing over the last 20 years has led to substantially more inelastic aggregate demand curves for individual stocks… when demand is more inelastic, small changes in the market structure can have a large effect on prices, because investors are unwilling to change their positions.      – Haddad et al, 2021, via Simplify ETFs How does

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Mr. X: “Much higher BTC prices are a form of compensated financial repression” (FFTT, 12/10/24)

Continued growth in stablecoins, assuming the current trend in stablecoin collateral choices continues (or is forced by a regulator), will create structural demand for short-dated U.S. Treasuries; recommended issuance should on the margin lean to a higher proportion of T-bills.– US Treasury TBAC supplemental report, October 2024 To date, digital asset markets have limited access to traditional safe-haven or risk hedging instruments like USTs.  In recent years, institutional sponsorship of Bitcoin has been growing and

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Bessent’s “3 Arrows” all require a much weaker USD (FFTT, 12/3/24)

We may continue seeing this deflationary export glut come from China, and then at a point, and I don’t know if it’s because of tariffs, I don’t know if it’s because of some boycott on Chinese products that the rest of the world is just going to say no mas, that you can’t have 13% of the population and 30% of the exports.      – Scott Bessent, 10/17/24, via Simplify Asset Management President Trump’s very fixated

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